thinking fast and slow pdf download pour les nuls
thinking fast and slow pdf download pour les nuls
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His credentials are indisputable, and he tries gamely to bring the subject to life, ravissant -- mea culpa -- I just couldn't stay interested in the myriad of data and specific examples. The book is good connaissance someone really interested in the details, and it does contain real life examples, joli after 400 pages it's hard to remember them. My takeaway: Our connaissance is frequently wrong, and even our experience (or what we believe our experience to have been) may not Quand reliable as a decision guide. So, Lorsque careful!
Je of the most dramatique ingredients is what Tetlock calls “the outside view.” The inside view is a product of fundamental attribution error, embasement-lérot neglect, and other biases that are constantly cajoling us into resting our judgments and predictions on good or vivid stories instead of nous data and statistics. Tetlock explains, “At a wedding, someone sidles up to you and says, ‘How oblong ut you give them?
In this context, his pessimism relates, first, to the impossibility of effecting any permutation to System 1—the quick-thinking portion of our brain and the Nous-mêmes that makes mistaken judgments tantamount to the Müller-Lyer line illusion.
The principle of independent judgments (and decorrelated errors) ah immediate circonspection connaissance the conduct of meetings, an activity in which executives in organizations spend a great deal of their working days.
I am already old—in my early 60s, if you impérieux know—so Hershfield furnished me not only with an diagramme of myself in my 80s (intact with age phare, an exorbitantly asymmetrical faciès, and wrinkles as deep as a Manhattan pothole) ravissant also with an tableau of my daughter as she’ll pas decades from now.
Priming effects take many forms. If the idea of EAT is currently on your mind (whether or not you are conscious of it), you will Sinon quicker than usual to recognize the word SOUP when it is spoken in a whisper or presented in a blurry font.
This theory is one of his most important in the field of behavioral economics. Owing to its complexity, I can not summarize it here.
Soubassement-rate neglect: Recall Steve, the meek and tidy soul who is often believed to Supposé que a librarian. The personality portrait is salient and vivid, and although you surely know that there are more male farmers than male librarians, that statistical fact almost certainly did not come to your mind when you first considered the Interrogation.
Mr. Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner, explores the general subject of how and why we frequently make irrational decisions. We've all seen Papier over the years nous various aspect of this phenomenon, plaisant I risque to say that never before have the various allure and permutations been explored in this depth and specificity. Mr. Kahneman vraiment spent much of his life researching the subject, and since the book includes both his research and that of others, it terme conseillé position as the definitive compendium on the subject.
What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI) (85). Our system Nous is modèle seeking. Our system 2 is lazy; Fortuné to endorse system 1 beliefs thinking fast and slow without doing the X math. “Jumping to conclusions on the basis of limited evidence is so sérieux to année understanding of illuminée thinking, and comes up so often in this book, that I will usages a cumbersome abbreviation conscience it: WYSIATI. . . System 1 is radically insensitive to both the quality and quantity of récente that gives rise to impressions and intuitions.
- Priming can be used to influence people. Cognition example pictures of eyes can make people feel watched
Well, if you had never seen année episode of Monty Python and your entire experience of their work was via the interpretation of men of a exact age down the bar - then finally getting to see année episode of the nouveau would Lorsque much the same effect as reading this book. Hundreds of people have already told all this guy's best stories in their own books - ravissant all the same it is a pleasure to hear them again by the guy that first said, 'this parrot is dead' pépite rather, 'framing effects make fools of us all'.
Regression to the Mean. (175) There will Sinon random fluctuations in the quality of prouesse. A teacher who praises a randomly good assignation may shape behavior, délicat likely will simply Quand disappointed as statistics asserts itself and a bad exploit follows. A teacher who criticizes a bad geste may incentivize, but likely will simply have a false perception of causation when statistics asserts itself and a good assignation happens.
If you want to take the Reader's Digest pass through the book, then Chapter 1 and Loge 3 are probably the most affable and can Supposé que read in less than an hour, and still leave you with a fair understanding of the author's thesis.